Most pattern guides tell you what a shape looks like and stop there. These pages also tell you how often it worked for us — on 277 calls we published in public before the move, and on 2,140 more replayed over history. Winners and failures are both counted.
Live and backtested are separate populations and are never averaged together.
A call counts as a win if price closed 5% in favour before it wicked 5% against, measured from the confirming close over the following 30 days. "Live" means we posted it on the board at the time. "Backtested" means the same detector replayed over past data — a separate population, and not part of our published record.
| Pattern | Bias | Live calls | Live hit rate (as of 6 Sep 2026) | Backtested | Backtested rate (as of 6 Sep 2026) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rectangle / Range | Either way | 65 | 45% | 105 | 44% |
| Double Bottom | Bullish | 55 | 49% | 103 | 47% |
| Double Top | Bearish | 43 | 33% | 76 | 49% |
| Descending Triangle | Bearish | 39 | 54% | 107 | 45% |
| Ascending Triangle | Bullish | 35 | 40% | 96 | 46% |
| Falling Wedge | Bullish | 21 | 57% | 77 | 48% |
| Inverse Head and Shoulders | Bullish | 8 | too few to say | 11 | 36% |
| Head and Shoulders | Bearish | 7 | too few to say | 18 | 56% |
| Rising Wedge | Bearish | 4 | too few to say | 24 | 25% |
| Bull Flag | Bullish | — | not published live yet | 610 | 48% |
| Bear Flag | Bearish | — | not published live yet | 634 | 48% |
| Cup and Handle | Bullish | — | not published live yet | 279 | 48% |
Across every family, 43% of our 277 resolved live calls worked — which is what an unfiltered detector that publishes its own failures looks like — against 47% of 2,140 backtested ones. Families with fewer than 10 resolved calls show "too few to say" rather than a percentage, because a rate on four calls is noise, not a finding.
A hit rate near half is what an honest, unfiltered pattern detector looks like. We publish every detection that clears the geometry test, not the handful that happened to work, and we grade them on a fixed rule rather than by eye. Sites quoting 70% and 80% are usually either selecting after the fact or counting a touch of the target rather than an ordered outcome.
What makes a pattern tradeable is not the raw hit rate anyway — it is the size of the winners against the size of the losers, and where the invalidation sits. That is why every call on our board keeps its peak move and its drawdown, both visible on the full record.