Price drifts lower inside two downward-sloping lines that are closing on each other. Both the highs and the lows are falling, but the lows are falling more slowly, so the range narrows as it descends.
Both boundaries must slope down, they must converge rather than run parallel, and the lower line must be the shallower of the two. The trigger is a close above the upper boundary.
The direction of both lines is what separates a falling wedge from a bear flag or a plain downtrend channel. We had this exact classification inverted at one point and fixed it, so the geometry check is now explicit in both directions.
These are our own measurements, not textbook claims. A call counts as a win if price closed 5% in favour before it wicked 5% against, measured from the confirming close over the following 30 days. Everything that resolved is counted, including the failures.
| Population | Resolved | Hit rate | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Published live and resolved | 21 | 57% | Calls we posted on the board before the move, graded 30 days out. |
| Backtested and resolved | 77 | 48% | Same detector replayed over history. Not the published record. |
Live and backtested are different populations and should not be averaged. The live figure is the one that came from calls published in public before the move. See every live and past call on the Chart Patterns board.
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