A sharp decline, then a shallow drift higher in a tight channel, then a resumption lower.
A measurable down-leg, a shallow counter-trend channel that slopes against it, and a close back below the channel to trigger.
The same caveat as the bull flag applies: the large sample here is backtested, not published live.
These are our own measurements, not textbook claims. A call counts as a win if price closed 5% in favour before it wicked 5% against, measured from the confirming close over the following 30 days. Everything that resolved is counted, including the failures.
| Population | Resolved | Hit rate | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Backtested and resolved | 634 | 48% | Same detector replayed over history. Not the published record. |
Live and backtested are different populations and should not be averaged. The live figure is the one that came from calls published in public before the move. See every live and past call on the Chart Patterns board.
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