A sharp advance, then a shallow drift lower or sideways in a tight channel, then a resumption. The pole is the impulse; the flag is the pause.
A measurable impulse leg, followed by a retracement that stays shallow relative to that leg and slopes against it, contained in a narrow channel. The trigger is a close back above the channel.
Flags are the family where our backtested sample is largest and our live published sample is smallest, because the live board applies stricter admission than the backtest did. Both numbers are shown below and they are not the same measurement.
These are our own measurements, not textbook claims. A call counts as a win if price closed 5% in favour before it wicked 5% against, measured from the confirming close over the following 30 days. Everything that resolved is counted, including the failures.
| Population | Resolved | Hit rate | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Backtested and resolved | 610 | 48% | Same detector replayed over history. Not the published record. |
Live and backtested are different populations and should not be averaged. The live figure is the one that came from calls published in public before the move. See every live and past call on the Chart Patterns board.
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