A horizontal range: price bouncing between a flat ceiling and a flat floor, with no directional bias in the shape itself.
Two or more touches of both boundaries, both roughly horizontal, with the range holding long enough to be a real balance area rather than two random bars. The trigger is a close outside either edge.
This is our most common detection and its hit rate sits close to a coin flip, which is exactly what you would expect from a shape with no directional bias. It is most useful as a map of where the edges are, not as a directional call.
These are our own measurements, not textbook claims. A call counts as a win if price closed 5% in favour before it wicked 5% against, measured from the confirming close over the following 30 days. Everything that resolved is counted, including the failures.
| Population | Resolved | Hit rate | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Published live and resolved | 65 | 45% | Calls we posted on the board before the move, graded 30 days out. |
| Backtested and resolved | 105 | 44% | Same detector replayed over history. Not the published record. |
Live and backtested are different populations and should not be averaged. The live figure is the one that came from calls published in public before the move. See every live and past call on the Chart Patterns board.
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