Two highs at about the same price with a dip between them. The second attempt failing at the first high is the tell.
Two highs within tolerance, separated by a real swing low, and a confirmed close below that low to trigger it.
The most common failure is a third push that clears both highs. That is why the pattern is only a call once the neckline breaks, and why we keep the ones that failed on the board.
These are our own measurements, not textbook claims. A call counts as a win if price closed 5% in favour before it wicked 5% against, measured from the confirming close over the following 30 days. Everything that resolved is counted, including the failures.
| Population | Resolved | Hit rate | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Published live and resolved | 43 | 33% | Calls we posted on the board before the move, graded 30 days out. |
| Backtested and resolved | 76 | 49% | Same detector replayed over history. Not the published record. |
Live and backtested are different populations and should not be averaged. The live figure is the one that came from calls published in public before the move. See every live and past call on the Chart Patterns board.
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